新型城镇化对农业高质量发展的促进效应

基于2004—2018年我国30个省份(西藏和港澳台地区除外)的面板数据,采用熵值法和优劣解距离法测算新型城镇化水平;将农业碳排放和农业面源污染纳入农业高质量发展的考核体系,采用EBM-ML指数法测算农业高质量发展水平;在此基础上进一步采用面板固定效应模型、门槛模型和工具变量法实证检验新型城镇化对农业高质量发展的促进效应。研究发现:新型城镇化对农业高质量发展具有非线性的促进作用,新型城镇化只有在跨越0.039的门槛值后,促进效应才会显现;新型城镇化对农业高质量发展的促进作用存在异质性,新型城镇化对西部地区的促进作用大于东中部地区。据此,提出夯实农业发展的科技支撑、强化农业发展的政策保障和健全城乡发展的互动机制等对策,以更好地发挥新型城镇化对农业高质量发展的促进作用。

Research on the promoting effect of new urbanization on the high-quality development of agriculture

Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China(excluding Tibet,Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan)from 2004 to 2018,this paper uses the entropy value method and the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution(TOPSIS)to measurethe level of new urbanization.In addition,this paper incorporates agricultural carbon emissions and non-point sources agricultural pollution into the evaluation system of the high-quality development of agriculture,and uses the EBM-ML index method to measure the level of the high-quality development of agriculture.On this basis,the panel fixed-effect model,threshold model and instrumental variable method are further used to empirically test the promoting effect of new urbanization on the high-quality development of agriculture.The results show that new urbanization has a non-linear promoting effect on the high-quality development of agriculture,and the promoting effect will appear only after the new urbanization crosses the threshold value of 0.039.The promoting effect of new urbanization on the high-quality development of agriculture is heterogeneous,and the promoting effect of new urbanization on the western region is greater than that on the eastern and central regions.Accordingly,this paper proposes the countermeasures such as consolidating scientific and technological support for agricultural development,strengthening the policy guarantee for agricultural development,and improving the interactive mechanism of urban-rural development so as to better perform the effect of new urbanization in promoting the high-quality development of agriculture.