泉州市环境库兹涅茨曲线实证研究

根据环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)假设,选取泉州市1991-2008年经济和环境的统计数据,定量分析泉州市经济发展与环境污染的相互关系。分析结果表明:泉州市工业"三废"排放与人均GDP之间存在明显的相关性,但并不完全符合EKC的典型倒"U"模型。工业COD拟合曲线符合倒"U"形的EKC曲线特征,工业废水、工业废气和工业SO2拟合曲线均为"U"+倒"U"形,工业固废拟合曲线为倒"U"形的左半部分。其中,工业COD、工业废水和工业SO2的EKC转折点已分别到达,工业废气和工业固废的EKC转折点尚未出现。结论建议:泉州市应进一步优化产业结构,加大环保投入,强化节能减排工作,减少工业固废和工业废气排放,争取尽早跨越EKC转折点。

Empirical study of Environmental Kuznets Curve in Quanzhou City

This paper investigates the relationship between economic growth and environmental pollution in Quanzhou city based on the Environmental Kuznets Curve(EKC) hypothesis,by using the series data of economy and environment from 1991 to 2008.The analysis results show that there is obvious relevance between the industrial wastes discharges and per capita GDP,but the coupling curve doesn′t conform to the typical EKC inverted-U pattern.The coupling curve of the industrial COD and per capita GDP shows the EKC characteristic.The curves of industrial waste water,waste gas and SO2 are taking the shape of U plus inverted-U pattern.The curve of industrial solid waste shows the shape of the left part of inverted-U pattern.The industrial COD,waste water and SO2 have reached respectively the turning points of EKC,but the industrial waste gas and solid waste haven′t reached.The conclusion and suggestion is that Quanzhou should further optimize industrial structure and increase investment in environmental protection,and strengthen energy saving and emission reduction,and decrease the industrial solid waste and waste gas discharge in order to pass through the turning point of EKC as soon as possible.