美国货币政策对中国经济的溢出效应研究

美国的货币政策对中国经济产出及物价水平有一定的冲击,但相比对西方发达国家的影响,该冲击并不显著;美国货币政策对中国经济的冲击主要是通过贸易渠道发生作用,说明中国的经济对贸易依存度仍然较高。因此,要使中国的货币政策独立于美国货币政策的影响,还需要进一步转换经济的增长点,将扩大内需作为中国经济进一步增长的工作重点。

The Spillover Effect of US Monetary Policy on Chinese Economy in Post-Crisis times: Evidence from VAR Model

Based on MFD model,this paper selects Federal Reserve Rate,US money supply,Chinese real GDP and Chinese CPI as variables.Using VAR model,the author analyses the spillover effect of US expansionary monetary policy on Chinese economy in post-crisis times.First,US monetary policy has some effect on Chinese economy,but the impact is not remarkable compared to the effect on western developed economies which is the focus of previous studies.The transmission of impact is mostly through trade balance.To have a more independent Chinese monetary policy,Chinese economy should rely more on domestic demand.