西部地区环境创新与经济增长的实证分析

选取《中国可持续发展战略报告》中的评估指数量化环境创新的绩效水平,利用1995—2010年的西部地区数据,通过ARIMA模型对2011与2012年西部环境创新绩效进行预测,预测结果显示西部地区环境创新绩效具有稳定上升的趋势。使用单位根检验,协整分析与Granger因果关系检验西部地区经济增长与环境创新绩效之间的关系,检验结果显示两者之间存在长期均衡关系,环境创新对经济增长具有正的外部溢出效应,西部地区的经济增长与环境创新之间互为格兰杰原因。实证结论基本符合西部地区社会经济发展状况,最后提出了相关的政策建议。

Empirical Analysis of Environmental Innovation and Economic Growth in Western Region

This paper chooses the evaluation index from The Report of Sustainable Development Strategy of China and quantifies the environmental innovation performance level.The data of western region from the year 1995 to 2010 is exploited to forecast the regional environmental innovation performance level in 2011 and 2012 through ARIMA model.The result of prediction indicates the tendency of stable increase of this level.Many methods are used including unit root test,co-integration analysis and Granger Causality to test the relationship between the environmental innovation performance and economic growth.The result shows the long-term equilibrium relationship between them;environmental innovation has positive external spillover effects on economic growth and they follow the Granger Causality.The results of empirical analysis comply with the situation of societal and economic development of western area.Finally,the relevant policy recommendations are proposed.