| 基于ARIMA模型的2009年山东省手足口病疫情分析及预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 吴孟泉,赵凯. 基于ARIMA模型的2009年山东省手足口病疫情分析及预测[J]. 鲁东大学学报, 2011, 27(1): 71-75 |
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| 作者姓名： | 吴孟泉 赵凯 |
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| 作者单位： | 鲁东大学地理与规划学院; |
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| 基金项目： | 鲁东大学学科建设基金,鲁东大学创新团队经费资助(08-CXA004),鲁东大学博士基金(LY20073201) |
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| 摘 要： | 对山东省2009年第13周至第35周(3月30日至8月30日)手足口病发病数作时间序列分析,应用 SPSS软件建立 ARIMA模型,并对预测效果进行评价.结果表明ARIMA (0,2,1)模型很好地拟合了既往时间段上的手足口病发病率序列,发病率的预测值符合实际发病率变动趋势.
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| 关 键 词： | 手足口病 时间序列分析 ARIMA模型 山东省 |
Hand-Foot-Mouth Disease Analysis and Prediction in Shandong in 2009 Based on the ARIMA Model |
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| WU Meng-quan,ZHAO Kai. Hand-Foot-Mouth Disease Analysis and Prediction in Shandong in 2009 Based on the ARIMA Model[J]. Ludong University Journal (Natural Science Edition), 2011, 27(1): 71-75 |
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| Authors: | WU Meng-quan ZHAO Kai |
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| Affiliation: | WU Meng-quan,ZHAO Kai(School of Geography and Planning,Ludong University,Yantai 264039,China) |
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| Abstract: | Time series analysis was made through ARIMA model which was constructed by SPSS based on the incidence of HFMD(from Mar 30 to August 30)in Shandong,and the predictive effect of ARIMA model was also evaluated.The result shows that the ARIMA(0,2,1) model was consistent with the incidence of HFMD,and the prediction of the incidence of HFMD were demonstrated to fitted the trend of the changes of the incidence of HFMD.The prediction is reliable,which can be the scientific basis for the prevention of HFMD. |
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| Keywords: | hand-foot-mouth disease time series analysis ARIMA model Shandong Province |
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