国际油价波动对中国经济发展的影响及相应策略研究

油价波动是近年国际经济中的一个敏感话题,2002-2005年的国际石油价格一直处于上升趋势,造成油价上升的主要原因在于供需失衡.高油价对我国经济增长、物价和就业水平、政府收支乃至国家安全等方面将产生重要的影响.结合西方经济学的分析方法,提出了高油价下我国的经济发展策略:即经济增长从要素投入增长模式转向知识投入增长模式;改变交通运输的格局,大力发展节能型交通运输工具;汽车工业的发展转向以技术创新为切入点,重点引进低成本节油技术;加大车改力度,创建节约型社会;建立国家能源安全战略体系,并适时建立石油期货市场等.

Strategical Analysis of Impact of Soaring Oil Price on China's Economic Development

The acute oil price fluctuation has been becoming a sensitive issue influencing the world economy,especially the oil price that was soaring in the period from 2002 to 2005.The cause was mainly the unbalanced relation between supply and demand.Discusses how the high oil price affects China's economic growth,general price level,employment,governmental revenue/expenditure and the national security.Based on an economical analysis made on that,the strategy for China's economic development at so high oil price is suggested,i.e.,to turn the mode of economic growth by production factors input to that by knowledge input;change structurally the transportation;restrain the rapid growth of oil consumption;take technological innovation of oil saving as the selling point of cars/trucks and focus on introducing low-cost oil-saving technologies into our auto industry;restrain strictly buying cars for governmental officials;from a "Saving First" society;establish the national energy security system and petroleum futures market.