运用对策论分析中国外汇储备政策的最优策略问题

随着中国在国际贸易上影响力的不断扩大,中国外汇储备规模也在不断增加.作为一个发展中国家,中国在国际储备的供应和分配方面均处于较被动的地位,如何运用适当的外汇储备的策略参与到竞争中是眼下中国政府与货币当局面临的一个重大课题.美元是中国的主要外汇,中美两国间的贸易对于中国制定相关外汇储备管理政策有着至关重要的影响.运用对策论对中美两国间在使用外汇储备政策上的博弈进行了分析,引入了一个外汇储备政策矩阵对策模型,从而得到中国外汇储备政策的最优策略.

Optimum Strategy Based on Game Theory for China's Foreign Exchange Reserve Policy

Along with the continuously increasing volume of foreign trade, China has more obvious influence on international trade. However, as a developing country, China still plays a passive role in the supply and distribution of international reserve. It is really an important issue to Chinese central government and Foreign Exchange Control Administration at present that an appropriate strategy shall be formulated for a foreign exchange policy to participate in international competition. In particular, the international trade between China and US has a key influence on China's formulation of exchange control policy because Chinese foreign exchange earnings are mainly from America. The game theory is therefore introduced in analyzing both countries' policies of foreign exchange reserve to get a relevant countermeasure model in terms of a simple matrix, by which an optimum strategy is obtained for the policy of China's foreign exchange reserve.