我国住宅销量和价格的主要影响因素——住宅市场宏观调控政策效果分析

结合10年来国家住宅市场宏观调控政策,采用单位根检验、联立方程模型和三阶段最小二乘法(3SLS),对我国2001年1季度至2010年4季度的宏观经济、住宅市场、土地市场数据进行了分析。结果发现,住宅销量的主要影响因素依次是住宅价格、广义货币供应量、土地供应量、城镇居民人均可支配收入、住宅竣工面积;住宅价格的主要影响因素依次是GDP、住宅土地价格、二手房价格;CPI不是推高房价的主要因素;行政手段和财政政策对住宅价格的调控是有效的,但效果不强(弹性-0.011),而货币政策对住宅销量的调控效果很强(弹性2.965)。建议住宅市场调控政策以货币政策为主,目标定位为区域住宅价格和销量增长率与区域GDP增长率相适应。

The Main Determinants of Chinese House Turnover and Price:An Analysis of Effects of the Policies on Housing Market

This paper analyzed the quarterly data of Chinese macro economy,housing market and land market from the first quarter of 2001 to the fourth quarter of 2010 through unit root test,simultaneous equations model and three stage least squares(3SLS) based on macro-policy for regulating housing market in the last ten years.The results show that the main determinants which affect Chinese house turnover in turn are house price,money supply(M2),land supply quantity,per capita disposable income of urban residents and completed residential areas,that the main determinants which affect Chinese house price in turn are GDP,land price and secondhand house price,but CPI is not one of the main factors that push up the house price,and that administrative means and fiscal policies on controlling house price are effective but their effect is not strong(elasticity-0.011),however,monetary policies on controlling house turnover are strongly effective(elasticity 2.965).Thus we suggest that the regulation for housing prices should mainly consider monetary policies and that regional housing prices and housing turnover growth rate should coincide with regional GDP growth rate.