对外贸易对经济增长的影响路径研究——以福建省为例基于中介效应的实证检验

本文利用中介效应模型，结合福建省1990—2013年数据实证检验了物质资本积累、人力资本积累及技术创新在福建省对外贸易促进经济增长过程中的中介作用。实证结果表明：进口对物质资本积累和人力资本积累两个中介变量具有促进作用，进而影响到福建省经济发展；出口则通过物质资本积累和技术创新这两个中介变量起作用；但进口主要是人力资本积累的中介效应，出口则主要是物质资本积累的中介效应。

Study on the Effect of Foreign Trade on the Path of Economic Growth in Fujian Province---Empirical Test Based on the Intermediary Effect by Taking Fujian Province as an Example

This paper empirically tests the intermediary effect of physical capital accumulation, human capital accumulation and technical innovation on the process of economic growth of Fujian province promoted by foreign trade via intermediary effect model and on the basis of the data of Fujian during 1990 2013. Empirical results show that the import has significant boosting effect on the two intermediary variables such as physical capital accumulation and human capital accumulation and further affects the development of Fujian economy while the export is effected by the two intermediary variables such as material capital accumulation and technical innovation, however, the import is mainly the intermediary effect from human capital accumulation while the export is mainly the intermediary effect from material capital accumulation.