我国经济结构失衡的实证分析——基于总需求结构视角

利用1980-2009年的统计数据，分析了投资、消费、进出口对经济发展的影响。实证分析结果表明，整体来看30年来消费对经济拉动作用超过投资和进出口，但是最近15年消费拉动经济的主导作用逐渐丧失，投资和出口的作用大大增加；消费和投资对经济增长具有长期稳定作用，而进出口在短期内有作用，但是作用明显小于投资和消费。实证结果和我国经济发展现状相比较可以得出我国经济发展存在内外需结构失衡、进出口结构失衡、投资和消费结构失衡的结论。

Empirical Analysis of Economic Structural Imbalances of China Based on Total Demand Structure

In this paper, based on the statistical data during the period 1980--2009, the effects of investment, consumption, import and export on the economic development are analyzed. The results show that the stimulating effect of the consumption on the economy is greater than the investment and import and export during this period, but the dominant role of consumption-driven economy has gradually been incapacitated in the last 15 years, while the role of investment and export has become noticeably stronger; the consumption and investment can exert a long-term stable effect on the economic growth, while the export and import play a short-term and less-effective one. Compared with the cur- rent situation of economic development in China, it is concluded that there are structural imbalances of domestic and external demands, import and export, investment and consumption in China＇s economic development.