中国寿险需求影响因素的实证检验

在理论上筛选出经济、人口、法律政策和社会环境四类主要影响寿险需求的因素基础上,选取全国除西藏外的30个省市自治区1998—2009年数据,采用面板数据的多元回归模型分析各个地区的国内生产总值、人均地区生产总值、城乡居民存款、利率、教育经费投入、儿童人口占比、老龄人口占比和加入WTO对寿险业务需求的影响。实证结果显示一年期固定存款名义利率、0—14岁儿童所占人口比例和加入WTO政策变量对需求的影响为负;地区国内生产总值、人均地区生产总值、城乡居民人民币储蓄存款、各地区历年教育经费投入和65岁老人所占人口比例的影响为正;各个地区的市场环境因素亦有所差别。

The Empirical Test on the Demand of Life Insurance in China

On the basis of filtering out theory influencing factors:economy,population,legal policy and social environment.The paper select 30 provinces,except Xizang,1998—2009 data:using panel data model to analyze GDP,per capita GDP,urban and rural resident’s deposits,interest rates,education funding,the proportion of child population,the proportion of aging population and the WTO’s impact on the demand for life insurance business.The regressive results show that the impact of interest rate,the proportion of child population and the WTO’s impact is negative,other factors impact is positive.