湖北省生态环境可持续性动态分析

以湖北省2001-2009年时间序列数据为基础,在生态足迹框架下应用能值分析理论,结合生态足迹多样性指数、万元GDP生态足迹和生态经济系统发展能力等3项指标动态分析研究湖北省生态环境的可持续发展能力。结果表明:经过9年的综合整治与规划,湖北省自然资源利用效率、生态足迹分配程度以及经济发展状况均有不同程度的改善和提高,但仍存在以下问题:自然资源供需不合理,湖北省生态赤字逐渐增加;自然资源组分结构变化明显,牧草地、化石燃料用地扩张速率过快;生态足迹多样性指数虽有显著增长,但生态足迹整体分配不均;万元GDP生态足迹下降趋势明显,整体资源利用效率较低;生态经济系统发展能力虽呈现上升趋势,但现状欠佳。因此,积极调整能源消费结构和自然资源分配利用方式是促进湖北省生态环境可持续性发展的关键。

Dynamic Analysis on Ecological Environment Sustainability in Hubei Province

Under the framework of ecological footprint, energy theory is applied to ananlyze sustainable development of ecological environment in Hubei province with the integration of ecological footprint diversity index, ecological footprint of ten thousands yuan GDP and development capacity of ecological economic system based on the 2001-2009 time-series data. The result shows that the efficiency of natural resource use, distribution of ecological footprint and economic development of Hubei province have increased in various degrees after comprehensive improvement and planning for nine years. However ,there are still many problems:such as unreasonable supply and demand chain as well as increasing ecological deficit in Hubei province; obvious changes in the structure of natural resource and fast land expansion rate of pasture and fossil fuels; in spite of significant increase in ecological footprint diversity index, the balance of distribution of ecological footprint is lost as a whole; the tendency of ecological footprint of ten thousand yuan GDP decreases obviously under the inefficient use of overall resources and the development of eco-economic system is on the rise and the economic and ecological condition of Hubei province will gain a strong increasing tendency in the future, but it is poor now. Therefore, it is the key point to adjust the structure of energy consumption and the allocation pattern of natural resources in order to promote the sustainable development of ecological environment in Hubei province.