农机服务发展与粮食生产效率研究:2004—2016——基于变系数随机前沿分析

采用“两步法”研究了农机服务发展与中国粮食生产效率的关系.基于2004-2016年全国31省份粮食生产投入产出的面板数据,利用变系数随机前沿分析方法测算了中国粮食生产的技术变化、技术效率以及全要素生产率,然后构建农机服务发展影响粮食生产效率的OLS回归模型.结果表明:(1)31省份粮食生产的投入要素产出弹性和技术效率存在明显差异,2008年粮食技术变化最为明显,粮食全要素生产率的增长在2008年高达5%.(2)农机服务在2008年以后对粮食全要素生产率的增长具有显著的促进作用,农机服务对粮食TFP的作用存在一定的滞后效应.(3)农机服务发展与劳动产出弹性具有替代关系,与化肥和机械产出弹性具有互补关系.在三大粮食作物中,小麦机械化程度最高,水稻和玉米的机械化程度还有待提升.

Research on Agricultural Machinery Service Development and Grain Production Efficiency:2004-2016——Based on Stochastic Frontier Analysis of Variable Coefficients

In this paper,the relationship between the development of agricultural machinery service and the efficiency of grain production in China is studied by using the two-step method. Based on the panel data of grain production input and output in 31 provinces of China from 2004 to 2016,this paper calculated the technical change,technical efficiency and total factor productivity of grain production in China by using variable coefficient stochastic frontier analysis method,and then constructed the OLS regression model of agricultural machinery service development affecting grain production efficiency.The results show that:(1)There are obvious differences in input factor output elasticity and technical efficiency of grain production in 31 provinces,and the change of grain technology was the most obvious in 2008,and the growth of total factor productivity of grain reached as high as 5% in 2008. (2)The development of agricultural machinery service has a significant promoting effect on the growth rate of grain TFP after 2008,indicating that the effect of agricultural machinery service on grain TFP has a certain lag effect. (3)The development of agricultural machinery service has a substitute relationship with labor output elasticity yet a complementary relationship with chemical fertilizer and mechanical output elasticity. The results also show that the mechanization of wheat is the highest among the three major grain crops yet the mechanization of rice and corn still needs to be improved.