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地理分区视角下的农业碳效应驱动机理研究
引用本文:田云,张君.地理分区视角下的农业碳效应驱动机理研究[J].华中农业大学学报(社会科学版),2020(2):78-87.
作者姓名:田云  张君
作者单位:中南财经政法大学 工商管理学院,湖北 武汉 430073;北京石油化工学院 人文社科学院,北京 102617
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目“巴黎协定下中国农业碳排放权省域分配及协同减排策略研究”(71903197);中南财经政法大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目“碳排放权分配视域下的中国农业碳减排补偿机制与支持政策研究”(2722020JCT020)。
摘    要:在科学评估我国七大区域农业碳效应的同时对其碳排放的公平性与否进行了综合评价,并在此基础上运用LMDI模型剖析了各地区农业碳效应的驱动机理.研究表明:①七大区域均表现出了农业净碳汇特征,其中以华东地区净碳汇量最大,西北地区最少;所有区域相比2000年均有较大幅度提升且以东北地区增幅最大,西南地区增幅最小.②东北地区农业碳排放生态承载能力居于全国第一位,高达1.680,而华南地区农业碳排放经济贡献系数最高,为1.241;各区域所呈现的演变轨迹集中表现为波动上升、波动下降、先升后降、轻微下降等几类形态;根据各自农业碳排放生态承载能力与经济贡献能力的数值差异可将七大区域划分为“高-高”“高-低”“低-高”“低-低”等四种类型.③经济因素、效率因素以及劳动力因素在影响农业净碳汇量变化方面发挥了更为显著的作用,且经济因素为驱动因素,效率因素、劳动力因素为抑制因素;而结构因素具有两面性特征且作用力度较小.

关 键 词:农业碳汇  农业碳排放  农业碳效应  LMDI模型  驱动机理

Research on Driving Mechanism of Agricultural Carbon Effect from the Perspective of Geographical Divisions
TIAN Yun,ZHANG Jun.Research on Driving Mechanism of Agricultural Carbon Effect from the Perspective of Geographical Divisions[J].Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University(Social Sciences Edition),2020(2):78-87.
Authors:TIAN Yun  ZHANG Jun
Abstract:The paper scientifically evaluates the agricultural carbon effect of seven regions in China and comprehensively evaluates the fairness of their respective carbon emissions. Based on the research above,the paper analyzes the driving mechanism of agricultural carbon effect of each region by using LMDI model. The results show that:(1)All the seven regions show the characteristics of agricultural net carbon sink,of which East China has the most net carbon sink and Northwest China the least. Figures of all the seven regions showed a leap after 2000 with the largest increase in northeast China and the smallest increase in southwest China. (2)The ecological carrying capacity of agricultural carbon emissions in northeast China ranks the first in China,up to 1.680. The economic contribution coefficient of agricultural carbon emissions in south China is the highest,at 1.241. The evolution tracks in these regions are mainly presented in such forms as fluctuated rise,fluctuated decline,first rise and then decline,and slight decline. According to the numerical difference between the ecological carrying capacity of agricultural carbon emissions and the economic contribution capacity,the seven regions can be divided into four types,namely high-high,high-low,low-high and low-low. (3)Economic factors,efficiency factors and labor force factors have played a more significant role in influencing the change of agricultural net carbon sink. Economic factors are driving factors,while efficiency factors and labor force factors are inhibiting factors. The structural factors are double-sided and less influential.
Keywords:agricultural carbon sinks  agricultural carbon emissions  agricultural carbon effect  LMDI model  driving mechanism
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