中国农产品对外贸易失衡：结构与态势

中国农产品持续不断增加的贸易逆差已引起政界和学界的高度关注。正确认识农产品贸易逆差的特征和成因,事关我国扩大农业对外开放政策的制定和实施。结合加入世界贸易组织的市场准入承诺,根据对我国海关农产品贸易数据和联合国商品贸易数据库的数据分析发现:我国农业资源禀赋的劣势和实施更为均衡的对外开放战略,是农产品贸易持续逆差的根源;棉花、大豆等转基因农产品进口的急剧增加,强化了农产品贸易逆差格局;作为一个农业大国,中国农产品贸易逆差还将在相当长的时期内持续,应对农产品贸易逆差的关键是优化农业对外开放结构,设计既能确保农业安全又不至于对国际农产品市场造成过大冲击的农业贸易与发展政策。

Imbalance of Foreign Trade in China＇s Agricultural Product： Structure and Changing Trend

Charateristics and causes of foreign trade deficit of agricultural product are very important for the making and implementation of China＇s policy in expanding agricultural opening to the outside world. Based on China＇s promises made in market-access negotiations of agricultural products and data from China＇s Customs and United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database, this paper concludes that China＇s sustaining deficit in agricultural trade originates from its absolute weakness in the endowment of agricultural resources and an all-round strategy of opening agriculture; the drastic increase of the importation of genetically-modified products, such as cotton, soybean,is reinforcing the deficit; as a large agricultural nation,China will continue to he in a position of trade deficit for a long time, and the key measures to cope with the grave situation are to optimize the structure of agricultural opening and to design a package of policies which can expedite agricultural development, ensure agricultural security,and mitigate the possible unfavorable impact of increasing agricultural trade deficit.