农业产业结构变迁对绿色全要素生产率增长的空间效应分析

本文利用1997—2016年中国大陆31省区面板数据,在较为全面地测度农业绿色生产率的基础上,借助空间杜宾模型,从农业产业结构合理化和高级化两个维度考察农业产业结构对农业绿色生产率的直接影响与间接溢出效应。结果发现,1998—2016年中国农业绿色生产率不断提高,其增长主要由技术进步驱动;东、中部省区农业绿色生产率整体水平较高,东北三省次之,而西部省区最低。省份间农业绿色生产率具有较强的空间依赖性,农业产业结构是影响农业绿色生产率增长的重要因素,一地区农业绿色生产率不仅受到本地农业产业结构合理化与高级化的直接影响,还受到邻近地区农业产业结构高级化的间接溢出。因此,新时期更应重视农业产业结构的合理调整与优化升级在农业绿色生产率增长中的重要作用,进而提升农业整体发展质量。

Analysis on the Spatial Effects of Agricultural Industrial Structure on Agricultural Green Total Factor Productivity

Based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 1997 to 2016,this paper comprehensively measured the green total factor productivity of agriculture,and used the spatial Durbin model to examine the direct effects and indirect spillovers of agricultural industrial structure on agricultural green total factor productivity.It found that China’s agricultural green total factor productivity has increased continuously from 1998 to 2016,mainly driven by technological progress.To be specific,the overall level of agricultural green productivity in the eastern and central provinces is the highest,closely followed by the northeast and then the west.And the agricultural green total factor productivity between provinces has a relatively obvious spatial dependence.The agricultural industrial structure is an important factor affecting the increase of the agricultural green total factor productivity,which is affected directly by the optimization and upgrading of the local agricultural industrial structure and indirectly by the upgrading of structure of the agricultural industry in the neighboring regions.Therefore,the rational optimization and orderly upgrading of agricultural industrial structure in the growth of agricultural green productivity should be highlighted so as to improve the overall quality of agriculture.