农村人口老龄化对农业高质量发展的影响

基于2004—2020年中国大陆30个省市面板数据,在运用熵值法测算出我国农业高质量发展水平的基础上,通过动态面板和门槛效应模型对农村人口老龄化促进农业高质量发展的效果和机制进行了实证检验。研究结果表明:农村人口老龄化能够显著提高农业高质量发展水平,其促进效应在粮食主产区内要强于产销平衡区内,而在主销区内,这一促进效应则并不显著。对农业高质量发展分维度异质性分析后发现:农村人口老龄化通过改善农业高质量发展中农业发展水平、资源条件、经济条件以及技术条件,促进农业高质量发展水平的提高;通过抑制环境条件的改善,阻碍农业高质量发展水平的提高。最后,门槛效应检验结果表明:农村人口老龄化对农业高质量发展的促进效应会随着农业高质量发展水平的提高而得到进一步的增强。

Impact of Rural Population Aging on High-Quality Agricultural Development

Based on the panel data of 30 provinces and cities in Chinese Mainland from 2004 to 2020, the level of high-quality agricultural development is measured using the entropy method, this paper empirically tested the effect and mechanism of rural population aging on high-quality agricultural development through dynamic panel and threshold effect models. The research results show that the aging of rural population can significantly improve the level of high-quality agricultural development, and its promotion effect is stronger in the main grain-producing areas than that in the balanced areas of production and marketing; while in the main grain-selling areas, this promotion effect is not significant. Analysis made on the heterogeneity of agricultural high-quality development found that this effect is achieved through improving the agricultural development level, resource conditions, economic conditions and technical conditions in high-quality agricultural development, while it hinders the improvement of agricultural high-quality development level by inhibiting the improvement of environmental conditions. Finally, test results of the threshold effect show that the promotion effect of rural population aging on agricultural high-quality development will be further enhanced with the improvement of agricultural high-quality development level.