广东对外贸易与经济增长关系的协整分析

利用多种计量分析工具,从总量和增长效应的角度研究了广东进出口与GDP增长间的关系。研究发现:从长期来说,进口、出口与GDP存在唯一稳定关系,出口较进口对经济增长有更大的促进作用;从短期来说,进口增长、出口增长都是GDP增长的Granger原因,出口增长同时也是进口增长的Granger原因,进口增长、出口增长都带动了经济增长,而且进口增长比出口增长与经济增长有更稳定、更紧密的联系

A Cointegration Analysis on the Relationship between Foreign Trade and Economic Growth in GuangDong Province

This paper employs quite a few econometric techniques to examine the long-term and short-term relationship among import, export and gross national products(GDP) in terms of total amount and growth effect. The result shows that there exists exclusive and long-term equilibrium among import, export and GDP growth, one-way causality relationship respectively between import and GDP, export and GDP, export and import, indicating foreign trade contributes much to the economic growth in GuangDong both in long and short term. Furthermore, it discovers export advances economic growth more than import does in the long term, but in the short term it is on the contrary. It can be concluded that the economic growth in GuangDong is export-inducing in the long term.