人力资本对新型城镇化的空间溢出效应

基于1999—2013年的省级面板数据,利用空间计量模型来研究人力资本对新型城镇化的空间溢出效应，具体测算了粮食主产区人力资本对新型城镇化的直接效应、间接效应和总效应，并与粮食非主产区进行了比较分析。结果表明：人力资本能够显著促进新型城镇化的发展，并且通过空间溢出效应对邻近区域的新型城镇化产生较好的促进作用，但是在粮食非主产区这种空间溢出效应更大；从其他控制变量来看，财政支农支出在全国范围具有较显著的空间溢出效应，并且在粮食主产区其溢出效应更强，而技术创新只在粮食非主产区存在空间溢出效应。

Research on Spatial Spillover Effect of Human Capital to New Urbanization

Based on the data panel from years 1999 to 2013, the paper uses spatial econometric model to study the impact of human capital on new urbanization, specifically estimates the direct effect, indirect effect and total effect of human capital to new urbanization in main grain producing area and carry on comparative analysis with non-major grain producing area. The results show that human capital can significantly promote the development of new urbanization. Furthermore, it can well promote he development of new urbanization of adjacent areas through space spillover effect, however, the space spillover effect is much larger in non-major grain-producing area. From the view of other control variables, fiscal expenditure in agriculture has significant space spillover effect in the whole country and there exists stronger spillover effect in main grain producing area; but technology innovation only has spillover effect in non-major grain producing area.