中国农村扶贫政策的减贫效应及其评价

围绕我国“农村扶贫政策在何种程度上减缓贫困”的争论性议题,从2950篇相关研究中筛选出159篇实证研究样本文献,提取531个效应值,运用Meta Analysis系统评价了改革开放以来我国财政扶贫的减贫效应及其结构和路径。采取FAT-PET-PEESE策略的计量结果显示:扶贫政策对农民收入增长和降低贫困发生率总体上具有正向作用,其中,增收效应接近中等程度,降低贫困发生率的作用则相对较弱;从结构上看,减贫力度从高到低依次为产业扶贫、教育扶贫、搬迁扶贫、社保扶贫和生态扶贫。此外,贫困人口的行为能力差异被证明是减贫效应的可能作用路径。新时期扶贫政策应保持基本的连续性,政策实施应以强化农民反贫困能力建设为核心,探索建立相对贫困治理的长效机制。

Poverty Reduction Effects,Evaluation and China's Rural Poverty Alleviation Policy

Focusing on the controversial issue of“how the rural poverty alleviation policies alleviate poverty in China”,this paper selected 159 empirical research samples from 2,950 related studies,extracted 531 effect values,and evaluated the poverty alleviation effect of the policies and their structure and path effect using the Meta-Analysis.Results of adopting the FAT-PET-PEESE strategy show that poverty alleviation policies have a positive and significant effect on farmers'income growth and reduction of the incidence of poverty.Among them,the former is more significant while the latter is relatively weak.From a structural point of view,the poverty reduction efforts ranked from high to low are:industrial poverty alleviation,education poverty alleviation,relocation poverty alleviation,social security poverty alleviation and ecological poverty alleviation.Differences in poor people's ability have had a possible role in reducing poverty.This paper points out that the poverty alleviation policy in the new period should maintain consistency,and focus on strengthening farmers'anti-poverty capabilities and in the meantime set up a long-term mechanism for relative poverty governance.