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基于多目标决策的流域水系统资源承载力分析——以浏阳河流域为例
引用本文:张海斌.基于多目标决策的流域水系统资源承载力分析——以浏阳河流域为例[J].湖南农业大学学报(社会科学版),2011,12(3):15-22.
作者姓名:张海斌
作者单位:国防科技大学,信息系统与管理学院,湖南长沙,410008
摘    要:在阐述河流流域水系统承载力的内涵及衡量指标,分析河流流域水系统承载关系的基础上,以人口、经济和环境为目标,以供水量、污染容量以及人口规划和工农业产值规划为约束,建立了基于多目标决策的流域水系统资源承载力优化模型。以浏阳河为例分析得出,按照浏阳河流域的可供水量、理论纳污容量和人口、经济发展规划速度,若以环境优先为前提,2015年浏阳河水系统资源承载能力满足要求,若以经济优先为前提,则基本满足要求;而无论是以环境优先还是以经济优先为前提,2020年均会出现水系统资源承载能力无法满足要求的情况。进而提出了浏阳河流域可持续发展管理对策。

关 键 词:水系统资源  承载力  浏阳河流域  多目标决策

Water resources carrying capacity based on multi-objective decision-making: A Liuyang River basin perspective
ZHANG Hai-bin.Water resources carrying capacity based on multi-objective decision-making: A Liuyang River basin perspective[J].Journal of Hunan Agricultural University(Social Science),2011,12(3):15-22.
Authors:ZHANG Hai-bin
Institution:ZHANG Hai-bin(School of Information System & Management,National University of Defense Technology,Changsha 410008,China)
Abstract:While explaining the connotation and the measure indexes of water resources carrying capacity,analyzing the relationship among water system,natural system and society system,aimed at proper population scale,economy development and environment protection along the river basin,this paper set an optimization model for water resources carrying capacity based on the multi-objective decision-making strategy.This paper then analyzes the situation of Liuyang River basin,forecasting that,taking the amount of available water supply,theoretical sewage volume,and economy development plan into consideration,the water resources of Liuyang River basin can meet the need of environmental and economy development up to 2015;while in 2020,the water resources can not meet the demand of environment or economy no matter which is given priority,environmental or economical.The paper then suggests that the policy makers take some measures to ensure the sustainable development of Liuyang River basin.
Keywords:water resources  carrying capacity  Liuyang River basin  multi-objective decision-making
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