钢铁行业运输环节碳减排情景分析与评价研究

我国钢铁行业碳排放量约为全国碳排放总量的15％，而运输耗能约占物流环节总耗能的5／6。实现钢铁行业中运输环节的节能减排，成为实现我国碳排放总量目标的重要环节。研究钢铁行业中运输环节的碳排放总量与不同碳减排途径及其组合在不同情境下的碳减排潜力，提出基于运输环节碳排放影响因素的碳排放总量测量模型、基于不同减排途径的低碳化分析模型及基于不同途径水平的情景仿真模型。与传统的累计模型不同，低碳化分析模型考虑碳减排途径间的相互影响作用，采用累积形式对减排途径组合进行分析与评价。最终以重庆某钢铁集团20万吨船用钢材作为案例进行情景仿真分析与评价，研究表明：在现有的运输条件下，可通过改变车辆运输方式直接实现0．7到3．9个百分点的碳减排；甩挂运输与混合动力系统改造，可作为优先发展技术，减排效果可达到30％；通过情景仿真分析得知，提高减排途径水平，减排效果将进一步增强。

Scenes Analysis and Evaluation on Carbon Emission Reduction of Iron & Steel Transportation

In China,the carbon emission of the Iron &Steel Industry is about 15% of the total quan-tity.Meanwhile,the energy consumption in the transport chain of logistics is about 5 /6 of the total energy consumption.Therefore,it’s important to decline the energy consumption in the transport chain of logistics for the national carbon emissions targets.In order to measure the total quantity and the reduction potential of the carbon emission and to analysis the upper and lower limit for the carbon reduction.I built some models:the carbon emissions measurement model based on the influential fac-tors in the transport,the low-carbon path analysis model based on the different low-carbon paths and the simulation model based on different technology levels.Being different from the traditional accumu-lation model,the analysis model used multiplication way to analyze and evaluate the carbon reduction of paths combination.Finally,the models was used on the 200 thousands tons ship steel of one Iron &Steel company in Chongqing to analyze and evaluate the current carbon emissions situation,the emis-sion reduction pathways and their reduction potential.The research conclusions:Just improve the transportation types can realize another 0.7% to 3.9% carbon emission directly.Drop and pull trans-port and hybrid system transformation can be the priority technology to application for the 30% emis-sion reduction potential.Improving the technology level for the carbon emission reduction pathways and the effect will be better from the simulation results.