中国劳动力供给刘易斯转折点探讨--基于中日比较的视角

刘易斯转折点意味着劳动力供给的基本变化。基于3个假设，借鉴日本城镇化水平、人口变动、经济转折点经验，结合中国城镇化未完成、就业结构转换滞后于产业结构转换的实际，利用1990—2014年相关数据实证分析城镇就业人数和城镇化水平之间的关系，预测中国将在2028年左右达到刘易斯转折点。在到达转折点之前，中国的劳动力供给能满足城市工业部门和服务业的劳动力需求，同时政府在未来相当长一段时间内仍然要把解决农民工和大学生就业问题放在重要位置。

Study on the Lewis Turning Point of Chinese Labor Force Supply from the Perspective of Comparison Between China and Japan

Lewis turning point means the basic change in the supply of labor force.Based on three assumptions,contrasting with Japan in the level of urbanization,population change,economic turning point experience,this paper recognizes the reality of China that our urbanization is not complete,the employment structure lags behind the industrial structure transformation,and concludes that Chinese now has not reached the Lewis turning point.This paper also empirically analyzes the relationship between urban employment population and urbanization level using the relevant data of 1990-2014 and forecast that China will see a stable urbanization of 70%,which will reach a turning point around 2028.Before reaching the turning point,Chinese labor force supply can meet the labor demand of city industry and service industry.Now Chinese unemployment problem is rather serious.So it’s still an
important task to solve the problem of employment of migrant workers and university students for Chinese government for a long period of time.