基于灰色系统理论的湖南粮食产量预测研究

粮食产量的准确预测是保障国家粮食安全的一个重要组成部分,它对政府制定相应粮食生产政策具有十分重要的意义.论文运用灰色相对关联分析,从影响粮食产量的众多因素中计算出了符合湖南禀赋的主要因子依次为粮食播种面积、农村从业人员数、每公顷面积产量、有效灌溉面积,并对这些因子进行了GM(1,1)残差修正预测,把预测所得数据作为相关因素序列数据,以粮食产量作为系统特征序列数据,构建了粮食产量的灰色GM(1,N)预测模型.根据湖南省1995～2010的粮食生产有关数据,对湖南省2015年粮食产量数据进行拟合和预测,经检验模型对2008～2010所预测数据和实际产粮数据平均相对误差为0.77％,具有较高的精确度,根据预测结果给出了确保湖南粮食产量稳定增长的政策建议.

Prediction of Grain Yield of Hunan Province Based on Grey System Theory

An accurate prediction of grain yield is an important part of national grain security,which is of much important significance for the government to establish a series of related grain policies.First,based on grey relative relational analysis,this paper calculates factor endowments which are corresponded to Hunan,i.e.grain planting area,village employees,output per hectare and effective irrigation area.Then,according to these factors,this paper carries out GM(1,1) residual modification forecasting;taking the predicted data as?relevant factors data and grain yield as characteristic variable data,it constructs a GM(1,N) prediction model on grain yield.According to the related data about grain production from 1995 to 2010,and prediction of grain output data in Hunan Province in 2015,through this model it calculates that the mean absolute percentage error is 0.77% by comparing the predicted data and the actual grain production data from 2008 to 2010.Therefore,this model has high accuracy.Finally,the paper offers policy suggestions which can ensure a rich harvest of Hunan grain production.