我国银行信贷规模与产业结构变动关系的实证研究

本文运用Johansen协整检验、Granger因果检验等计量方法,对我国1952-2008年银行信贷规模与产业结构变动之间的关系进行了实证研究,结果表明：我国1952-1978年间银行信贷规模与产业结构变化之间不存在长期协整关系;1979-2008年间我国银行信贷规模与三次产业变动之间各存在长期协整关系,并且银行信贷规模变化是第一产业与第二产业变动的Granger原因;而第一产业与第二产业的变动不是银行信贷规模变化的Granger原因,银行信贷规模不是第三产业变动Granger原因,而第三产业变动是银行信贷规模变化的Granger原因。

An Empirical Study of the Relationship between Credit Scale and the Change of Industrial Structure in China

By Johansen co-integration test and Granger causality test method,this paper empirically tests the relationship between credit scale and the change of industrial structure from 1952 to 2008 in China.The results show that there is no long-term co-integration relationship between credit scale and the change of industrial structure from 1952 to 1978.There is a long-term co-integration relationship between credit scale and the primary,secondary and third industry from 1979 to 2008 in China.The change of credit scale results from the causative factor of Granger in the primary and the secondary industry,and the change of the primary and secondary industry does not result from the causative factor of Granger in credit scale.The credit scale is not the reason for the change of the Granger factor in the third industry;yet,the change of the third industry results from the causative factor of Granger in the credit scale.