基于演化博弈分析的水泥企业碳减排决策选择研究

面对日益严格的碳排放管制,企业应该加大减排投资还是直接到碳交易市场购买配额,以实现碳成本最低,碳减排收益最大化？这是每一个高能耗高排放企业都必须面对的决策问题。文章拟建立AB两家水泥企业的碳减排策略的博弈模型,通过对此模型进行演化博弈分析,以发现影响企业低碳减排决策的关键因素。研究结果表明,水泥企业是否选择在生产过程中加大减排投入取决于其单位碳减排成本与消费者对低碳产品的偏好程度和碳价之和的大小比较。因此,要实现低成本减排的目标,水泥企业应积极开展低碳生产技术和减排技术的研发,追踪整个产品生命周期的碳元素流,针对碳排放量较高的重点生产工艺进行碳减排改造。政府则需要加快推进碳交易市场建设,为企业参与碳交易提供稳定的市场环境。同时加大对低碳产品的宣传,强化消费者对低碳产品和水泥企业碳减排行动的认可。

Selection of Carbon Emission Reduction Decisions in Cement Enterprises Based on Evolutionary Game Analysis

Faced with increasingly stringent carbon emission control, should enterprises increase investment in emission reduction or directly buy quotas in the carbon trading market, so as to achieve the lowest carbon cost and maximize the benefits of carbon emission reduction? This paper intends to establish a game model for the carbon emission reduction strategies of AB cement enterprises. Through the evolutionary game analysis of this model, it finds out the key factors influencing the low-carbon emission reduction decisions of enterprises. The results show that whether cement enterprises choose to increase emission reduction investment in the production process depends on the comparison between their unit carbon emission reduction cost and consumers'' preference for low-carbon products and the sum of carbon price. Therefore, to achieve the goal of low cost emission reduction, cement enterprises should actively carry out the research and development of low carbon production technology and emission reduction technology, track the carbon element flow of the whole product life cycle, and carry out carbon emission reduction transformation for the key production process with high carbon emission. The government needs to accelerate the construction of carbon trading market to provide a stable market environment for enterprises to participate in carbon trading. At the same time, the promotion of low-carbon products should be enhanced to strengthen consumers'' recognition of low-carbon products and carbon emission reduction actions of cement enterprises.