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核事故早期应急群决策模型研究
引用本文:武良鹏,邹树梁,刘文君.核事故早期应急群决策模型研究[J].南华大学学报(社会科学版),2015,16(5):6-13.
作者姓名:武良鹏  邹树梁  刘文君
作者单位:(南华大学 经济与管理学院, 湖南 衡阳 421001)
基金项目:湖南省社科基金项目“我国核电产业技术效率测度研究”资助(编号:12CJY013);湖南省社科基金项目“内陆核电厂非常规突发事件应急准备体系及其评估研究”资助(编号:14JD51);南华大学研究生科研创新项目资助(编号:2015XCX08);湖南省研究生科研创新项目资助(编号:2015SCX12);湖南省重点学科“管理科学与工程”资助
摘    要:有效快速的核事故早期应急决策,是核电站发生核事故后最后一道必要的屏障,因此决策的快速性与有效性至关重要。文章先构造效用函数,求出决策者的乐观系数,将决策判断矩阵中的区间值与模糊值精确化;在此基础上建立了个体与群体的决策模型,以提高决策的有效性。同时根据排序结果,构造群体与个体之间一致性判断矩阵,并根据判断矩阵进行交互与修改,使专家内部快速达成一致。最后通过算例说明方法的可行性。

关 键 词:核事故  早期应急  效用函数  乐观系数  一致性
收稿时间:2015/10/8 0:00:00

Research on the Model of Group Decision Making for Nuclear Early Emergency Response
WU Liang-peng,ZOU Shu-liang,LIU Wen-jun.Research on the Model of Group Decision Making for Nuclear Early Emergency Response[J].Journal of Nanhua University(Social Science Edition),2015,16(5):6-13.
Authors:WU Liang-peng  ZOU Shu-liang  LIU Wen-jun
Abstract:The rapid and effective early emergency response decision is the last necessary parclose after the nuclear accident, so the rapid and effective decision-making is the most important. Firstly, the utility function is proposed to calculate the optimistic coefficient of decision makers, then, turned the interval number and fuzzy value into real After it, a decision model of individuals and groups will be established, in order to improve the effectiveness of decision-making at the same time ,according to the results of ranking,a judgment matrix will be employed to check out the consistency between group and individual, thereby the expert internal agreement will be improved finally, a case is applied to demonstrate its feasibility.
Keywords:nuclear accident early emergency response utility function optimistic coefficient consistency
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