东部沿海制造业内部结构调整对能源强度的影响机制分析

本文分析了1999—2008年我国东部沿海制造业内部结构调整对能源强度的影响机制,通过统计数据筛选出东部沿海六省市,即鲁、苏、沪、浙、闽、粤制造业集聚程度变化幅度最大的十大行业,并以十大行业指标占全行业的比重作为产业结构调整的度量依据,用面板数据模型分析了制造业内部结构调整对能源强度的四大影响机制,分别是投资效应、结构效应、技术效应和收入效应。本文的实证分析验证了产业结构调整对能源强度影响的综合性,并发现结构调整可以通过投资的方向和规模来影响能源强度,而由其引致的产业结构的高级化和十大行业人均收入的领先并不必然导致能源强度的降低,十大行业全要素生产率的提高对能源强度的影响不显著。

Analysis on the Impact Mechanism of Internal Structural Adjustment in Eastern Coast Manufacturing on Energy Intensity

This paper analyze the impact mechanism of internal structural adjustment in eastern coast manufacturing in China on energy intensity.The first ten sub-sectors in concentration degree change are selected based on the statistical data in eastern coast manufacturing,including Shandong,Jiangsu,Shanghai,Zhejiang,Fujian and Guangdong.The index ratios of the ten subsectors to those of the whole sector are taken as estimators.Panel data model is applied to analyzing the impact mechanism of investment effect,structure effect,technology effect and income effect.The empirical analysis demonstrates the comprehensive impact.The results show that the structural change can affect the energy intensity through the direction and scale of investment,while the industrial structure supererogation and the increasing in income per capita will not necessarily reduce the energy intensity.The impact of the improvement in total factor productivity is statistically insignificant.