西北五省经济人口承载力的分析及预测

对于中国这个人口大国,人口承载力是一个值得研究和关注的课题,西北五省在人们的印象中是地广人稀,学界对该地区的人口承载力的研究大都从自然资源的角度探讨,然而本文不考虑自然因素的作用,认为一个区域资源的稀缺可以通过经济技术解决,只是成本高低的问题,因此仅从经济人口承载力的角度分析,利用P-E-R模型分析西北五省人口承载力,并利用ARIMA模型对2012-2015年该地区人口承载力进行预测,并得出相关结论.

Analysis and Prediction of PopulationCarrying Capacity of the Economy in Five Northwestern Provinces

The study population carrying capacity of the economy has been no systematic study of the system, and moss- tudy of the population carrying capacity study population to in the five northwestern provinces of moderate size of the pop- ulation from natural resources point of view. This article does not consider the role of natural factors that scarce resources can be an area through economic and technical solution, therefore only from the perspective of economic population bear- ing capacity, the use of P-E-R model northwest population carrying capacity, and the use of ARIMA models to predict population carrying capacity draw relevant conclusions.