中国国际贸易结构变化对能源消费影响途径分析

上世纪90年代以后，工业制成品在中国对外贸易中占有更重要地位，中国对外贸易也因此可能对能源消费产生更显著影响。本文运用投入产出系统理论，通过建立能源消费的直接消耗系数和完全消耗系数计算模型，运用1992年、1997年和2002年的投入产出表数据等，首次研究了中国对外贸易分行业结构变化对能源消费的直接影响途径和间接影响途径。研究认为，金属冶炼及压延加工业、化学工业、火电及蒸汽热水生产供应业、煤炭采选业、石油加工业是相关行业净出口对能源消费重要的影响途径，这些行业能源效率的提高通过产业关联可以更有效地降低中国对外贸易净出口对能源消费的不利影响；最后，提出了相关政策建议。

The Path of Impact of China's Foreign Trade Structure on Energy Consumption

Manufactured goods have contributed significant importance to Chinese foreign trade since 1990s, leading to Chinese foreign trade exert important effect on energy consumption. This paper presents input-output system theory for setting up direct consumption coefficient model and indirect consumption coefficient model of energy consumption. Using input-output data in 1992, 1997 and 2002, et al, the direct effect path and indirect effect path of Chinese foreign trade structural on energy consumption at sector level was first measured. Results show metal processing, chemistry, electric power-gas-hot water, coal mining ＆ extraction are important paths of Chinese net export on energy consumption. The improvement of energy efficiency in the above sectors could greatly reduce the energy consumption resulted from Chinese net export by the way of production-related association. The paper closes by policy suggestions.