企业财务风险预警指标体系改进的研究

财务预警指标是企业陷入财务危机过程的"晴雨表",是企业财务预警的核心。文章分析了现有预警指标研究中存在的问题,并深度剖析其原因。在此基础上,以筹资、投资和运营这3类资金循环活动的规律为出发点,再将这3类活动中可能面临的不确定因素(筹资结构、支付能力等9大方面)作为基本框架,对现行预警指标体系尝试着进行重新分类,并对现有预警指标进行改进、筛选和补充,使其可以从多个不同角度对企业实施预警监控。以提高财务风险预警的有效性和准确性。

Enterprise Financial Risk Early Warning Index System Improvement Research

Financial early warning index,the ＂barometer＂ of the enterprise in the financial crisis,is the core of enterprise financial early warning.In this article,the existing problems in the research of early warning index and their causes are deeply analyzed.On the basis of the analyses,the author tries to summerize the rules of three types of capital circulation activities,i.e.funds raising,investment and operation,and build up a basic framework of uncertainty in the three kinds of activities,including financing structure,ability to pay and so on.At the same time,in order to improve the effectiveness and accuracy of financial risk warning,a new classification of current index system has been tried with improvement,screening and supplement to the existing early warning indicators,so as to realize the monitoring and control on enterprises from different angles.