中国劳动就业与经济增长的实证分析

文章采用1978~2005年的数据并利用协整理论分析了我国劳动就业与经济增长之间的长期的、均衡的、稳定的关系,结果表明它们之间存在着协整关系,并进一步建立了误差修正模型。我们研究发现,一方面,长期而言,经济增长与就业存在显著的正相关关系;另一方面,在一定阶段里,由于生产要素密度发生变化,经济增长对劳动力的吸纳能力在下降。鉴于我国劳动力的比较优势,需要积极促进第三产业发展,以劳动密集型的第三产业吸纳更多劳动力,实现我国经济增长与扩大劳动就业的长期均衡。

An Empirical Analysis on the Relationship Between China's Employment and Economic Development

This article,based on the data during the period from 1978 to 2005,makes use of the theory of co-integration to analyze the long-term,balancing and stable relationship between China's employment and economic development.It turns out to be a co-integrated relationship between them.Furthermore,it establishes the ECM.The study finds out that economic development demonstrates a critical positive value in employment in the long term although this value may drop in a certain period due to the change of production factors.Thus efforts should be made to develop the third industry to enlarge employment by exploiting the comparative advantages of China for the purpose of maintaining the long-term equilibrium between China's employment and its economic development.