外资进入对中国银行体系稳定性影响研究——基于主成分分析法和Logit模型的实证分析

近年来,外资进入速度明显加快,对我国银行体系稳定性的影响持续加深,有必要就此影响进行系统测度,为下一阶段银行业开放政策提供参考。通过主成分分析法度量我国银行体系稳定性,并建立logit模型分析外资进入对我国银行体系稳定性的影响。研究表明:外资进入对我国银行体系稳定性的正面影响大于负面,总体有利,有必要继续加快银行业开放进程;经济增长、外汇储备水平、货币供应增长对银行体系稳定性影响为正;行业集中度提高、利率和汇率波幅加大会降低银行体系稳定性。

Impact of Foreign Capital on Stability of China's Banking System: An Empirical Analysis Based on Principal Component Analysis and Logit Model

In recent years,foreign capital accelerates the process of entering China’s banking system and its impact on the stability of the system continues to deepen,so it is necessary to systematically measure the impact to provide China’s banking industry with a reference for the next stage of its opening-up policy.This paper measures the stability of the system through the principle component analysis,and analyzes by establishing the Logit model the impact of foreign capital on the stability of the system.The results reveal that:the impact is generally positive and favorable,and China’s banking system needs to speed up its opening-up process;economic growth,foreign exchange reserve and money supply growth have a positive impact on the stability of the system;higher concentration of the banking industry and higher volatility of interest and exchange rates can reduce the stability of the system.