人均第三产业增加值与人口城市化水平关系研究

通过应用EV iews软件包对人均第三产业增加值与人口城市化水平数据样本进行回归分析,采用G ranger因果关系检验方法对二者因果关系进行验证,证明了我国人均第三产业增加值增长与人口城市化水平高度正相关,且二者之间存在内在的因果关系,其中我国人均第三产业增加值增长是人口城市化水平变化的重要动因,但人均第三产业增加值对人口城市化水平的影响是滞后的。指出在推进城市化的进程中不能忽略第三产业的发展,一定区域内经济的发展要因地制宜,要看到各产业对城市化的推动作用是同样的,关键看该产业是否适合该区域经济、社会和自然的和谐发展。

Relationship between the Urbanization of Population and the Per Capita Added Value of Tertiary Industry

Through a regressions analysis on the data samples of the level of population urbanization and the per capita added value of the tertiary industry by using the EViews software package and a verification on the causality between them by using the Granger Causality Test Method,it is proven that the increment of the per capita added value of the tertiary industry is in positive correlation with the level of population urbanization and there is inherent causality between them,and the increment of per capita added value of the tertiary industry is an important driver for the level of population urbanization. However,the influence of the per capita added value of the tertiary industry on the level of population urbanization is lagged.The development of the tertiary industry cannot be ignored in the process for pushing population urbanization. Local economy should develop in the light of the local conditions,and we should note that all industries have equal driving effects on the urbanization.Therefore,the key hinges on whether the industries facilitate the harmonious development of the local economy,society and nature.