资本流出管制在短期内对资本外流促进机制的理论分析

经济管理当局实行资本流出管制的目的,就是希望这种政策能够有效的阻止或减少本国的大量资本流出,但同时由于这种政策会增加本国资产持有者对未来不能自由支配资产的担心,也会产生加强资本外流的作用。国内外很多学者已经证明资本管制政策只在短期内可以发挥这一效能。但是中国和其他一些国家的经验数据表明,有时在短期内管制政策也无法发挥当局期望的作用,而对资本外流的加强却可能起到了主导作用。通过一个理论模型,解释在短期内资本管制政策加强资本外流作用的发生机制。

Theoretical Analysis of the Influence of Capital Control Policy on Capital Outflow

The main objective of capital controls policy is to prevent or at least reduce the amount of capital outflow, but home assets holders always worry that they would never control their own assets freely because of this policy. Many authors have provided evidence that capital control policy only can help achieve this objective as the government has originally expected in the short term. However, the empirical evidence from China shows capital control cannot prevent or reduce the capital outflow even in the short term. So the other possibility is that such a short-term policy may even simulate capital outflow or capital flight. The objective of this article is to show how the capital control policy stimulates capital outflow or capital flight from home country.