基于2007-2012年数据的南京市房地产发展趋势预测

在简要分析南京市2007-2012年房屋建筑施工面积、住宅商品房销售面积、住宅商品房销售均价、房屋竣工面积的基础上,将社会经济发展的宏观指标与住宅商品房销售均价涨幅等进行对比,总结并分析了影响南京市房地产价格的8个关键指标：一致性指标2个、反向性指标3个、滞后性指标3个。在此基础上,对南京市未来5年的房地产价格走势进行了预测：南京市未来5年房地产价格将会呈现出3个阶段与特点,即快速上涨期、涨幅拐点期、涨幅稳定期。

Prediction on the trend of real estate development in Nanjing city in the future based on the data from 2007 to 2012

On the basis of brief analysis of the construction area of buildings,sales area of residential commodity houses,average price of residential commodity houses in sale and area of floor space completed in Nanjing city from 2007 to 2012,the authors make a comparison between the macro goal of social economic development and the rise of the average price of residential commodity houses,and summarizes as well as analyzes the eight key indicators that influence real estate price in Nanjing,that is,two coincidence indicators,three backward indicators and three lagging indicators.On this basis,the article predicts the price trend of the real estate in Nanjing city in the next five years.The real estate price in Nanjing in the next five years will present three stages and features,namely,period of rapidly rising,period of inflection point and period of stable growth.