中美竞争视角下人民币国际化的机遇、挑战与路径

针对中美博弈背景下人民币国际化发展问题,以新时代中美竞争与“去美元化”为基础,利用SWOT分析方法,对人民币国际化进行了国际政治经济学分析。研究认为,中国通过实施“一带一路”倡议推进人民币亚洲化,填补“去美元化”在亚洲所遗留空间,推动了人民币国际化成为新的发展趋势; 中国的国际地位是人民币国际化、亚洲化的根本保障; 以亚洲为中心、联通中国与欧盟的“一带一路”建设是人民币国际化、亚洲化的主要机遇; 亚洲部分国家使用美元的惯性、美国围堵打压中国的“印太战略”、中美脱钩则是人民币亚洲化的现实挑战。研究表明,中国应进一步完善体制机制推进技术进步和产业升级,提升科技创新能力和国际竞争力; 以互利共赢为基础坚持扩大开放,加快构建国内国际双循环新发展格局; 同时利用亚洲基础设施投资银行、金砖国家开发银行等“一带一路”金融支持机构投资和国际格局重塑的机会,积极拓展人民币在亚洲乃至全球范围内的使用及影响力。

Advantages,challenges and path of the internationalization and Asianization of RMB from the perspective of Sino-US competition

Aiming at the issue of the development of RMB internationalization in the overall context of the big game pattern between China and the United States, based on the Sino-US competition and "de-dollarization" in the new era, the SWOT analysis method is used in this paper to analyze the international political economy of RMB internationalization. The study found that China has promoted the Asianization of RMB through the implementation of the "Belt and Road" initiative, filled the space left by "de-dollarization" in Asia, and promoted the internationalization of RMB as a new development trend; China's political, economic, and military power status is the fundamental guarantee for the internationalization and Asianization of RMB; the "Belt and Road" construction that centers on Asia and connects China and the European Union is a major opportunity for the internationalization and Asianization of RMB; the inertia of some Asian countries using the US dollar, the US's "Indo-Pacific strategy" to contain and suppress China, and the decoupling of China and the United States are real challenges to the Asianization of RMB. The study believes that China should further improve its systems and mechanisms to promote technological progress and industrial upgrading, and enhance its technological innovation capabilities and international competitiveness; adhere to the expansion of opening up on the basis of mutual benefit and win-win results, accelerate the construction of a new domestic and international dual circulation development pattern; and at the same time utilize the opportunities of Asian infrastructure investment banks, the BRICS national development banks and other "Belt and Road" financial support institutions investing and reshaping the international landscape, and actively expand the use and influence of the RMB in Asia and even the whole world.