中国农村可再生能源消费现状及影响因素分析

中国能源安全面临日益严峻的挑战,促进可再生能源发展对缓解中国能源安全和减少环境污染具有重要意义。利用全国4省409户农户连续两期的实地调查数据,通过描述性统计分析、相关性分析和计量经济学联立方程模型系统方法,对中国秸秆、薪柴、沼气、太阳能等农村可再生能源的消费现状、发展趋势及其影响因素进行分析。统计分析结果表明: 目前中国农村可再生能源消费仍以秸秆和薪柴等传统能源为主,但其消费量和所占比例呈明显下降趋势;太阳能和沼气等新型可再生能源发展较快,但2012年在可再生能源中所占的比例仅为7.55%。计量分析结果表明: 家庭经济水平、劳动力价格、当地能源市场发育程度、家庭人口结构特征等因素对农村居民可再生能源消费影响显著。

Renewable Energy Consumption in Rural China: Current Situation and Major Driven Factors

Energy security has become one of China's top concerns in recent years. The development of renewable energy is of great importance not only for improving China's energy security but also for reducing environmental pressure. Based on household survey data collected from 4 provinces in 2009 and 2013, this paper analyzes the current situation and determinants of renewable energy consumption in rural China. The results show that traditional biomass energies, such as crop residue and wood, are still the major renewable energy used in rural China, although it is decreasing in recent years. The development of new energies such as solar energy and biogas are rapid in rural China, but the share of those new energies in total renewable energy are still small with only about 7.55 percent in 2012. Statistical analysis and econometric regression results show that household income, rural labor cost, maturity degree of local energy market, and household demographic characteristics are critical factors that affect renewable energy consumption in rural China.