二律背反:新生代农民工生育意愿的变化趋势及其政策启示

新生代农民工作为农民工的主体，绝大部分人处于婚恋和生育的黄金阶段，其生育意愿对中国城镇化发展和人口可持续发展具有重要的现实意义。通过纵向和横向对比分析，发现新生代农民工生育意愿具有明显的现代性特征。相对于老生代农民工而言，新生代农民工生育意愿显著降低，并趋近新生代城—城流动人口；其生育意愿的性别、婚姻状况、受教育程度差异等内部分化显著弱化。而且，基于城市适应理论视角，从经济适应、社会适应、心理适应、制度适应4个维度对其影响因素进行实证分析，发现城市适应对新生代农民工生育意愿的影响呈现代际显著增强的态势。经济适应、社会适应、心理适应程度的提高会显著地降低新生代农民工期望生育子女数。这使得中国城镇化发展与新生代农民工生育意愿降低的现象并存，存在城镇化发展与人口可持续发展之间二律背反的矛盾困境。而制度适应却能显著提升新生代农民工生育意愿，这为促进城镇化发展和人口可持续发展相协调提供了可能和路径。

The Trend and Policy Implication of The Fertility Desire of the New Generation of Migrant Workers

As the main body of migrant workers, most of the new generation of migrant workers are in the golden stage for marriage and childbearing. Their fertility desire has important practical significance for the urbanization and population sustainable development in China. Through vertical and horizontal comparisons, it found the fertility desire of the new generation of migrant workers significantly decreased, with an obvious modernized characteristic, reaching new generation inter-city migrant population. The differences of gender, marital status and educational level in their fertility desire weakened significantly. Based on the theory of urban adaptation, this paper analyzed the influencing factors of their fertility desire, and found that the influence of economic adaptation, social adaptation, psychological adjustment and institutional adjustment is significantly enhanced. The improvement of economic adaptation, social adaptation and psychological adaptation will significantly reduce their expected number of children in the new generation of migrant workers. This makes the development of urbanization and the phenomenon of reducing the fertility of the new generation of migrant workers coexist. There are two contradictions between urbanization and population sustainable development. However, institutional adaptation can significantly improve their fertility desire, which provides a possibility and path for the coordinated development of urbanization and population sustainable development.