房价波动、银行信贷与产业升级——基于银行信贷中介效应检验及区域差异对比分析

房价波动是影响产业升级的重要因素。阐述房价暴涨通过银行信贷中介效应传导机制对产业升级产生抑制作用，并基于全国大中城市2007-2016年面板数据，采用动态面板模型系统GMM估计法检验房价波动通过银行信贷中介效应机制影响产业升级。研究结果表明:第一，大中城市的房价过快上涨对产业升级产生负效应；第二，大中城市的房价过快上涨会增加房地产银行信贷需求，挤出了支持技术创新、产业升级的银行资金，从而抑制产业升级；第三，通过区域差异对比分析，东部大中城市银行信贷对房价波动与高新产业关系发挥中介效应，房价上涨通过吸收银行信贷挤出高新产业发展资金；中部大中城市房价上涨通过吸收银行信贷挤出第三产业发展资金；银行信贷没有对西部城市的房价波动与产业升级发挥中介效应。

House Price Fluctuation,Bank Credit and Industrial Upgrading—The Test of the Intermediary Effect of Bank Credit and the Comparative Analysis of Regional Differences

House price fluctuation is an important factor affecting industrial upgrading. First of all, housing prices skyrocketed through the transmission mechanism of intermediary effect of bank credit. Then, based on 2007-2016 panel data of large and medium cities, the dynamic panel model of system GMM was used to examine house price fluctuations and the influence on industrial upgrading through bank credit intermediary effect mechanism. According to new research:first, the rapid rise of housing prices in large and medium-sized cities hadnegative effects on industrial upgrading; second, the excessive rise of housing prices in large and medium-sized cities would increase the credit demand of real estate banks, squeezing out bank funds supporting technological innovation and industrial upgrading, thus restraining industrial upgrading; third, the comparative analysis of regional differences found that there was an the intermediary effect of bank credit on the house price fluctuations and the high and new industry relationship in the eastern cities, the rise of house prices squeezed out funds for the development of high and new industries by absorbing bank credit; the rise of house prices in large and medium cities in central China squeezed out the capital of the third industry through the absorption of bank credit; but bank credit had no mediating effect on house price fluctuations and industrial upgrading in western cities.