基于供求关系的房价波动分析

基于1999—2017年中国35个大中城市的面板数据，构建基于供求关系的面板回归模型，从国家和区域两个层面对造成房价波动的原因进行探究。结果表明:价格预期在全国和区域模型中均对房价有显著的正向影响，且在大多数地区，其影响力大于其他因素；人口对房价有正向影响，但只在北部沿海、东部沿海和南部沿海显著；收入对南部沿海、黄河中游和西南地区的房价均有显著的正向影响，而在北部沿海、东部沿海、长江中游、西北地区和东北地区，该因素对房价的影响并不显著；除全国和西南、西北地区外，房屋造价作为成本因素对绝大多数地区的房价有正向影响；信贷的可获得性作为政策因素对房价有正向影响，除南部沿海和黄河中游外，在其他区域均显著；住宅开发投资与住宅价格呈负相关关系，但其只在少数经济发达地区显著。因此，未来对房地产市场的调控应根据区域房价波动影响因素的不同区别对待，因地制宜。

An Analysis of Housing Prices Fluctuation based on the Relationship between Supply and Demand

Using the panel data of 35 large and medium-sized cities in China from 1999 to 2017,panel regression models of both national and regional are established to explore the causes of housing prices fluctuation. The results show that:price expectation has significant positive impacts on national and regional housing prices,and its influence on housing prices in most regions is greater than others. population has a positive impact on housing prices,but this impact is only significant in the North Coast,East Coast and South Coast. income has significant positive impacts on housing prices in the South Coast,Yellow River,and Southwest,while in the North Coast,East Coast,Yangtze River,Borthwest,and Northeast,the influence is not significant; as the cost factor,the housing cost has a positive impact on housing prices in most regions,except for the national level,the Southwest and the Northwest in the regional level. as the policy factor,credit availability has a positive impact on housing prices,and the impacts are significant in most regions,except the South Coast and Yellow River. housing investment and housing prices are negatively related,its non-significant relationships exist in most regions,except a few economically developed areas,such as the North coast and the East coast. Therefore,the regulation and control of the real estate market in the future should be treated differently,according to local conditions and the different influencing factors of regional housing price fluctuation.