中国区域碳排放驱动因素、减排贡献及潜力探究

运用拓展的STIRPAT模型对1995-2016年中国四大地区碳排放驱动因素进行实证探究，同时基于脱钩分析构建相关评价指标以揭示各地区历史碳减排贡献、潜力及其差异。研究结果显示:（1）人口规模、经济发展、产业结构、固定资产投资等对全国及各地区碳排放而言均为稳定且重要的影响力量，且对不同碳排放水平地区这些作用力表现差异明显；（2）外贸仅为驱动东北与东部地区碳排放增长的显著力量；（3）表征技术效应的能源消费结构，仅对东部地区发挥了符合理论预期的抑制力作用，而碳强度则没有发挥出理想的技术溢出效应；（4）样本期间，各地区平均碳减排贡献及平均碳减排潜力大小均依次为东北地区、中部地区、东部地区、西部地区。

Study on China's Regional Driving Factors of Carbon Emission,Emission Reduction Contribution and Potential

Using extended STIRPAT model,this paper studied the driving factors of carbon emission in China''s four major regions from 1995 to 2016,and revealing the historical contribution and potential of these regions to carbon emission reduction and their differences by constructing related indicators based on decoupling analysis. The results showed that:(1)Factors,such as population,economic development,industrial structure,fixed asset investment,etc. were all stable and important forces for the whole country and these regions,and there were significant differences in these forces for these regions with different carbon emission levels.(2)Foreign trade was a significant driving force only for the northeastern and eastern regions.(3)The energy structure characterizing the technical effect only had expected inhibitory effect in eastern region,while carbon intensity did not have the desired technology spillover effect.(4)During the sample period,the average carbon emission reduction contribution and potentials for each region were all in the order of northeast region,central region,eastern region and western region.