基于受灾人员损失的应急资源网络多周期配置

基于大规模突发事件灾害链演化新情景,以及不同救援周期应急资源供给和需求在数量、种类与需求时间上的差异性,建立应急时间最短、受灾点人员损失最小和运输费用最小3个带主从关系的目标函数,并以应急资源供给和需求等为约束条件,构建多资源、多运输方式、多应急出救点——多受灾点的多周期复杂应急资源分配网络配置决策模型,并基于资源需求急迫度和应急限制期,设计多周期、多资源分类调度启发式算法对模型求解。以汶川地震为例的实证研究结果表明:灾害链情景下,受灾人员损失、应急限制期和资源需求急迫度,对多周期应急资源分配网络动态优化调配决策均具有影响作用。

Disaster Chain,Loss of Victims in the Disaster and Multi-period Allocation of Complex Emergency Resources Networks

According to scenarios of disaster chains in large-scale emergency events,based on the different supply and demand of emergency resource,including quantity,type and demand time in different rescue period,three objective functions with priority (the shortest response time,minimal loss of victims in the disaster and minimal transportation costs) and the constraints based on the emergency resource demand and supply are set up. Then a dynamic optimal decision model for emergency resource dispatching with multi-resources,multi-modal transportation and multi-cycle is proposed. Considering the degree of urgent emergency resources requirements and the given deadline,an heuristic algorithm of multi-resources and multi-cycle scheduling is proposed to solve the model. The case study of earthquake in Wenchuan shows that under the situation of disaster chains,during the optimal multi-cycle dispatching decision making for emergency resources,the loss of victims in the disaster,the deadline of emergency and the degree of urgent emergency resources requirements are the most important factors.