环境规制对环境污染空间演变的影响

通过构建环境规制强度综合指数和环境污染综合指数，运用全域自相关检验、局域空间自相关检验、局域空间自相关分布及显著性检验，实证研究2004—2014年中国各省份环境污染的空间格局与空间演变；基于空间杜宾模型实证检验环境规制对环境污染空间影响的作用机理。结果显示:（1）中国各省份的环境污染存在显著空间正自相关性，在区域空间分布上形成了高低两个集聚区域，低污染物排放集聚区正在由东部向东南部扩展，高污染物排放集聚区正在由西北部向东北部扩展；（2）环境规制强度、技术创新对环境质量的改善起阻碍作用，表明中国目前的环境规制确实存在“绿色悖论”，技术创新并未激发波特假说的“创新补偿”效应。对外开放程度的提高可以显著改善环境质量，中国并不存在“污染天堂”；（3）环境规制强度和对外开放程度的直接效应远大于间接效应，产业结构和技术创新的间接效应大于其直接效应，也就是说，本地环境污染受本地环境规制和对外开放程度的影响大于受相邻地区的环境规制强度和对外开放程度的影响，本地环境污染受相邻地区的产业结构和技术创新的影响大于本地的工业化水平和技术创新的影响。

The Influence of Environmental Regulation on the Spatial Evolution of Environmental Pollution

In this paper,a comprehensive evaluation of the environmental regulation intensity and environmental pollution was made. Global autocorrelation test and local space autocorrelation test were conducted and the results of autocorrelation distribution and significance test of local space were analyzed. Besides,the spatial pattern and spatial evolution of environmental pollution in provinces in China from 2004 to 2014 were studied empirically, and the effect mechanism of environmental regulation on environmental pollution was tested using Spatial Dubin Model. The results show that;(1) the environmental pollution in provinces of China shows significant spatial autocorrelation, forming one cluster of areas of heavy pollution expanding from northwest to northeast and one cluster district of low pollution expanding from east to southeast;(2)environmental regulation intensity and technological innovation hinder the improvement of environment, implying that there is a "green paradox" in China''s environmental regulation and technological innovation does not stimulate the "innovation compensation" effect of the Potter hypothesis;(3)the direct effect of environmental regulation intensity is greater than its indirect effect, as well as the level of opening-up. However, the indirect effect of industrial structure and technological innovation are greater than their direct effect. In other words, local environmental pollution is more affected by local environmental regulation intensity and the level of opening-up than that in adjacent provinces. The influence of industrial structure and technological innovation in adjacent provinces is great than that affected by local level of industrialization and technological innovation.