城市化路径、速度偏差与能耗效应——土地城市化与人口城市化视角

基于2000-2012年省级面板数据，建立空间杜宾模型，从中国的土地城市化和人口城市化路径，以及上述两种城市化进程推进速度偏差的角度，分析城市化进程的能耗效应。研究发现，在5%水平下，土地城市化整体上能够显著增加能耗，而人口城市化整体上则没有显著性的影响，同时土地城市化相对于人口城市化的过快推进也能显著推动能耗的上升。相对于人口城市化而言，土地城市化是中国城市化进程中能耗增加的主导力量，土地城市化主要通过间接效应影响到能耗，而人口城市化主要通过直接效应影响到能耗。认为，应当优化人口城市化的空间布局，提升土地城市化效率，推动土地城市化与人口城市化的协同以及提升能源利用效率。

Urbanization, Speed Differences and Energy Consumption-Land Urbanization and Population Urbanization Perspective

Based on the provincial panel data during 2000-2012,the energy effects of land urbanization and population urbanization and their speed differences are analyzed by manipulating a spatial Durbin model. Under the significance of 5%,the conclusions include: land urbanization is energy incremental,while the population urbanization is not,and the enlargement of urbanization speed will lead the rise of energy consumption. Land urbanization is the main cause of energy consumption rising relative to population urbanization,and it mainly works through indirect effect. Based on the conclusions above,some suggestions such as optimizing the geographic distribution of population,improving the efficiency of land use,coordinating the process of migration and land use,raising energy consumption efficiency,are provided to propel the conservation of energy consumption.