内控缺陷的存在与披露对股价崩盘风险的影响

为探究内控缺陷如何影响股价崩盘风险，从坏消息的聚集和释放这一视角进行理论分析，将影响机制分解为内控缺陷的存在与披露两个过程分别讨论。以2008—2019年沪深主板上市公司为初始研究对象，筛选出内控有效的公司和内控具有严重问题的公司构建研究样本，采用多元回归分析、倾向得分匹配、双重差分等多种研究方法，实证结果发现:相较于内控有效的公司，存在内控缺陷的公司股价崩盘风险更高；内控缺陷的披露对股价崩盘风险影响微弱。进一步分析表明，信息透明度在内控缺陷的存在与股价崩盘风险的关系中具有部分中介作用。

The Effects of Internal Control Deficiencies' Existence and Disclosure on Stock Price Crash Risk

In order to explore how internal control deficiencies affect stock price crash risk, this paper makes a theoretical analysis from the perspective of gathering and releasing negative news and discusses the influence mechanism from two processes: the existence and disclosure of internal control deficiencies (ICDs). Taking A-share companies listed on mainboard from 2008 to 2019 as the initial study objectives, this paper selects companies with effective internal control and companies with serious internal control deficiencies to build the sample. By adopting methodology including multiple regression analysis, propensity score matching and difference-in-difference method, the results show that: (1) compared to companies with effective internal control, companies with ICDs are more likely to experience stock price crash; (2) the disclosure of ICDs only has marginal effect on future stock price crash risk; and (3) transparency has a partial mediating effect on the relationship between ICDs existence and stock price crash risk.