新能源产业政策的量化分析及其环保效应

基于2003—2017年中国大陆30个省份的新能源产业政策以及CO₂、SO₂、PM_2.5排放量等数据，利用关键词提取和政策力度的方法量化分析新能源产业政策，并建立空间杜宾模型分析政策的环保效应。研究表明:新能源产业政策侧重点依次为新能源技术研发创新、太阳能和风能产业、新能源汽车，政策力度也呈现出阶段性变化。与之相对应，新能源产业在政策侧重和政策力度较大时发展较快，继而降低大气污染和碳排放。回归模型进一步证实新能源产业政策产生了显著的环保效应，而且具有溢出效应，即本省的新能源产业政策也会降低邻近省份的CO₂、SO₂、PM_2.5排放量。因此，应加强政策内容的导向作用，提升政策力度，合理匹配政策内容与政策力度改善大气环境；同时各个省份应该加强地区间新能源产业政策的协调，共同减少碳排放、联合治理大气污染。

Quantitative Analysis of New Energy Industry Policy and Its Environmental Protection Effect

In this paper, based on the policies of new energy industry and the data of CO₂, SO₂, and PM_2.5 emissions in 30 provinces from 2003 to 2017, the methods of keyword extraction and policy power were used to quantitatively analyze the new energy industry policies, and the spatial Durbin model was established to analyze the environmental protection effects of policies. The results show that the new energy industry policies focus on the research and innovation of new energy technology, the solar energy industry and wind power industry, and new energy vehicles. And the policy power also presents periodic changes. Correspondingly, the new energy industry develops rapidly when the policy focuses on it and the policy power is large, which is conducive to reducing air pollution and carbon emissions. The regression model further confirms that the new energy industry policies have significant environmental protection effects. And these policies also have spillover effects, that is, the new energy industry policies of this province can also reduce the emissions of CO₂, SO₂ and PM_2.5 in neighboring provinces. Therefore, the provinces should strengthen the guiding role of policy, enhance the policy power, and reasonably match the policy content and policy power to improve the atmospheric environment. At the same time, the provinces should strengthen the coordination of new energy industry policies and jointly reduce carbon emissions and control air pollution.