环境规制对经济高质量发展的影响及空间效应

在污染治理和经济转型的双重压力下，环境规制是否以及如何影响经济高质量发展，目前学术界尚未形成共识。基于2009—2018年中国30个省级行政区的面板数据，从结构转换这一新的视角解构环境规制与经济高质量发展的作用通道，构建空间杜宾模型刻画环境规制竞争，探索对高质量发展的空间溢出效应。研究结果显示:（1）环境规制对经济高质量发展具有显著且稳定的促进作用，效率改进和技术进步是提升发展质量的主要来源。环境规制与高质量发展间存在“U形”动态规律，中国平均环境规制强度已经处在“U形”曲线的上升阶段，但低规制强度组尚处在“U形”曲线的下降阶段。（2）环境规制通过产业结构合理化和高级化中介通道间接促进发展质量提升，且产业结构中介效应大于环境规制的直接效应，环境规制有助于激励产业结构合理化对要素重置效率的促进效应，增强产业结构高级化对要素升级的促进效应，进而助益经济高质量发展。（3）考虑空间相关性后，全局层面环境规制对高质量发展的促进作用有所减弱，局部区域环境规制竞争产生了异质性的空间影响，东部地方政府在环境规制执行上缺乏协同性，对高质量发展具有负向空间溢出，而中西部环境规制竞争具有正向空间溢出。从环境规制政策的制定和执行角度，提出优化产业结构效应和空间效应的对策，为推进经济高质量发展提供可行路径。

The Influence of Environmental Regulations on High-quality Development and Spatial Effects —Based on the Intermediate Perspective of Industrial Structure Transformation

Under the dual pressures of pollution control and economic transformation, the academic community has not yet reached a consensus on whether and how environmental regulations affect high-quality economic development. Based on the panel data of 30 province-level administrative regions from 2009 to 2018, this paper analyzed the relationship of environmental regulation and high-quality economic development from the perspective of structural transformation, and the spatial Durbin model was used to describe the competition of environmental regulations and explore the spatial spillover effect on high-quality development. The research found that: (1) Environmental regulation had a significant and stable promotion effect on high-quality development, in which efficiency improvement and technological progress were the main sources. There was a U-shaped dynamic law in environmental regulation and high-quality development. Now China’s average environment regulation is already in the ascending stage of the U-shaped curve, but the low-regulation intensity group is still in the descending stage of the U-shaped curve. (2) Environmental regulation indirectly promoted the high-quality development through the intermediary channels of industrial structure rationalization and advancement, and the intermediary effect was greater than the direct effect. Environmental regulation is conducive to fully encouraging the industrial structure rationalization to reduce the efficiency of factor replacement, and enhance the positive effects of industrial structure advancement on the upgrading of factors, thereby contributing to high-quality development. (3) After the spatial relevance was considered, the effect of environmental regulations in promoting high-quality development weakened, and the competition of environmental regulations among local governments showed a heterogeneous impact. The eastern region lacked synergy in the implementation of environmental regulations, thus producing negative spatial spillovers, while in central and western regions, environmental regulations had positive spatial spillovers on high-quality development. Finally, in the formulation and implementation of environmental regulatory policies, the effects of industrial structure and spatial effects were optimized, and a feasible path to promote high-quality economic development was provided.