科学基金资助主题的演化路径分析与预测——以科技管理与政策学科为例

国家自然科学基金（NSFC）作为中国科技研究创新和探索的主渠道之一，一直致力于资助基础研究和科学前沿探索，支持人才和团队建设，增强源头创新能力，因此国家自然科学基金资助项目的研究主题在一定程度上可以反映相应学科或领域的前沿热点。运用文本挖掘和科学计量学等方法，以科技管理与政策学科为例，分析了科学基金资助的主要研究主题及其演化规律，并根据主题演化路径对未来可能的资助热点主题进行了预测。研究发现:通过构建主题演化路径能很好地反映资助热点的演变趋势，对科学基金资助管理和战略规划具有指导和借鉴意义。

Evolutionary Path Analysis and Forecasting based on NSFC Funded Topics-A Case Study of Science and Technology Management and Policy

National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC),as one of the main channels for innovation and exploration of scientific and technological research in China, has been committed to supporting basic research and the exploration of cutting-edge science, supporting talent and team building, and enhancing source innovative ability. So the research topics of NSFC funded projects can, to a degree, reflect the frontier and hot spots of corresponding disciplines or research areas. Taking the disciple Science and Technology Management and Policy as an example, this paper adopted text mining and scientific metrology methods to analyze the main research topics supported by NSFC and their evolutionary laws, and forecast the possible hot topics in future research with the help of topic evolution path. It is found that the evolution trend of NSFC founded topics can be well reflected by constructing the topic evolutionary path, which is instructive and useful for the management and strategic planning of NSFC.