碳限额与交易政策下供应链低碳技术投资时机研究

在碳排放权限额与交易政策环境下, 碳排放权交易价格的不确定性对供应链企业选择低碳技术投资时机具有重要的影响。利用实物期权理论评估碳交易价格不确定情况下供应链低碳技术投资具有的期权价值, 建立供应链低碳技术投资时机决策的基本模型, 在此基础上, 构建考虑供应链内部合作的低碳技术投资博弈模型, 重点讨论供应链上下游企业在对投资时机与转移支付比例进行决策的均衡策略。基于上述模型, 通过数值算例进一步分析低碳技术投资时机的影响因素。研究结果表明:碳减排率水平、碳价波动率、企业间转移支付比例等因素会对低碳投资门槛产生影响, 供应链企业应综合评价碳价波动下低碳技术投资的期权价值, 合理选择投资时机与转移支付比例的最佳平衡点, 实现经济效益和低碳减排的双重目标, 并保障供应链协调与投资优化。

Timing of Low-carbon Technology Investment in Supply Chain under Carbon Cap and Trade Policy

In the environment of carbon emissions cap and trade policy, the uncertainty of carbon emissions price has an important impact on the low carbon technology investment timing choice of the supply chain enterprises. By using the real option theory, the research investigates the option value of low-carbon technology investment in supply chain under uncertainty of carbon price and establishes a basic decisions model of low-carbon technology investment timing in supply chain. Based on the above basis, the paper constructs a low-carbon investment game model taking into consideration cooperation and competition relationship within the supply chain, and then emphatically discusses the equilibrium strategy decisions involving investment timing and proportion of transfer payments made by upstream and downstream enterprises in the supply chain. Based on the above models, the influence factors of low carbon technology investment opportunity are analyzed by numerical examples. The research results show that the factors such as the reduction rate of carbon emissions, the fluctuation rate of carbon price and the transfer payment proportion between firms have impacts on the threshold of low-carbon investment. In order to achieve the twin objectives of higher economic efficiency and more carbon emission reduction, and attain the supply chain coordination and the win-win situation between enterprises, the enterprises of supply chain should comprehensively evaluate the option value of low-carbon technology investments and reasonably select the best equilibrium of investment timing and transfer payments proportion.